When the oil runs out - Oil expert Richard Heinberg discusses his fears for our food supply with Michael Wale
RICHARD Heinberg is an expert on world oil, its sources and use, which makes him even more worried about what he thinks is about to happen not only to oil, but more importantly, our food supply.
He does not see bio-fuel as an answer to the world's fuel ills, on the contrary he sees bio fuels as a way of making the poorer nations poorer at the expense of the wealthier countries, as the richer nations demand more bio fuel to run their cars, and the poorer producer countries have to take their land out of food production to produce it.
Already we see the supermarkets selling carnations and "French" beans from Kenya using up their water supply.
Heinberg has divided the effects of his message about higher oil prices into four sections:
Lastly the degradation or loss of basic natural resources, principally topsoil and fresh water supplies as a result of high rates, and unsustainable methods of production stimulated by decades of cheap energy.
He is quick to point out that oil analysts agree that the peak of oil production will be reached sooner rather than later, and that already the price has almost doubled, which finally will reduce its use only to the wealthiest countries. America's production has dropped from 12 million barrels a day at its peak to five million barrels. And he underlined Britain's dilemma as we moved from selling most of our North Sea oil for 20 dollars a barrel, while we are now having to buy oil for between 100 and 200 dollars for the same amount. Heinberg explained, "Official agencies are taking notice. They cannot ignore the facts anymore. We cannot increase production, so we do have a problem. Oil producing countries are also oil consuming countries. Domestic consumption is increasing in every oil producing country. A good example is Russia. Although its production is declining its own consumption is growing, so its total export market could dry up in ten to fifteen years. In general oil producer exports will fall by three million barrels a day by 2012, and farmers in non-exporting countries who need imported oil for their tractors are going to have a very hard time of it."
Looking at the impact of biofuels, Heinberg said: "One factor influencing food prices arises from the increasing incentives for farmers worldwide to grow biofuel crops rather than food crops. Ethanol and biodiesel can be produced from a variety of crops including maize, soy, rapeseed, sunflower, cassava, sugar cane, palm and jatropha. As the price of oil rises many farmers are finding that they can produce more income from their efforts growing these crops and selling them to biofuels plant, rather growing food crops either for their local community or export.
"Already 20 per cent of the US maize crop is devoted to making ethanol , and that proportion is expected to rise to one quarter."
It is reported that the Indian government is committed to planting 14 million hectares with jatropha for biodiesel production. Brazil plans to grow 120 million hectares of fuel crops, and Africa up to 400 million. While currently unproductive land is planned to be used for much of this production, many millions of people will be forced off that land.
Lester Brown, founder of the Washington-based Earth Policy Institute, has said, "The competition for grain between the world's 800 million motorists, who want to maintain their mobility, and two billion poorest people, who are simply trying to survive, is emerging as an epic issue."
But all need not be gloom, if we study and follow the example of Cuba, Heinberg reasons. saying that in the late 1980s Cuban farmers were heavily reliant on cheap fuels and petro-chemicals from the Soviet Union, using more agro chemicals per acre than their US counterparts. In 1990 the Soviet empire collapsed. Cuba lost those imports and faced an agricultural crisis."
Unbelievably, the average Cuban lost 20lbs of body weight and malnutrition was nearly universal. Meanwhile several agronomists at Cuban universities had for many years been advocating a transition to organic methods. They were now given carte blanche to re-design the nation's agricultural future. Large state-owned farms were broken up, and land offered to farming families, and small agricultural co-ops were encouraged. Farmers began to re-place tractors with oxen. The Government-sponsored widespread education in organic farming.
Urban gardens were encouraged in parking lots and on public land, and thousands of roof top gardens appeared. Chickens and rabbits began to be reared on roof tops as well. As a result of all this energy Cuba was able to avoid what could have been a severe famine. Today food production has amazingly returned to 90 per cent of its pre-crisis levels.
Heingard says: "If the rest of the world does not plan for a reduction in fossil fuel use in agriculture, its post peak oil agricultural transition may be far less successful than was Cuba's. Already in poor countries, farmers who are attempting to apply industrial methods but cannot afford tractor fuel and petrochemical inputs are watching their crops fail. Soon farmers in wealthier nations will be having a similar experience. Where food is still being produced, there will be the challenge of getting it to the stores
Heinberg was in London to give the annual Eve Lady Balfour lecture. This year it was at the Central Hall , Westminster, which was crowded for the event. His latest book the highly-readable "Peak Everything", published by Clairview here, and is a must read, especially after hearing him end his lecture with the forecast, "A hundred years from now , everyone will be eating what we today would define as organic food, whether or not we act. But what we do now will determine how many will be eating, what state of health will be enjoyed by those future generations, and whether they will live in a ruined cinder of a world, or one that is in the process of being renewed and replenished."
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